The Haircut

Hello Folks,

DISCLAIMER: Itns been a pretty long time since my previous blog, since my first blog. So please apply your own logic and common sense before comprehending the content of my blog:

1. All countries in  the world are piling up huge public debts (govt. debts). These debts are typically debts that should be repaid by the govt  using taxes it collects. Eg. Greece has a debt of 140% + of its GDP (revenue or sales of the nation), USA has a debt of 50%+ of its GDP. India (55.9% of GDP source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India)

2. What this means?
If you have a debt (loans) of say 56% of your salary, then you would end up paying in between 10- 40% of your income as EMI (equated monthly installment). This is what the Govt. of India is doing.

3. European  nations PIIGS - Portugal Ireland Iceland Greece Spain are in a state pathetic that of India.

4. This means, eventually some of these countries are  going to default (i.e miss an EMI) on their debts. Or the European National Bank or the IMF (International Monetary Fund) will step in and give them temporary loans.

5. These temporary loans wont be sufficient - coz the debt piled up us very HUGE, and the only these countries can esacpe this debt is that if they grow their GDP at 7-10% which we all know is impossible. Inida is itself struggling to grow at 8%.

6.Hence, some of these counties are going to default on their loan payments now or within next 12 - 18 months (depending the amount of temporary loans). When these countries default, the situation is  going to be a severe rescission - just like the recession that occurred when Leahmon Brothers and Bear Sterns collapsed. ,

So guys, be alter - sooner or later  (in next 3 yrs) some kind of drama is bound to happen. So ensure you keep your investments safe !! Forget about stock markets, NSE will not cross 25000 in next 2-3 years. Inf fact it may drop significantly,

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